Tariffs Are Going Higher. But After the Supreme Court Ruling, the Playbook Has Changed.

After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping tariff authority last week, the administration has been rebuilding its trade toolkit piece by piece. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed Wednesday that the current 10% global tariff rate will increase to 15% for some countries, and potentially higher for others, using alternative legal authorities. He declined to name specific trading partners or give a timeline.

The new legal playbook

The administration is now expected to lean on two tools it still has: Section 232, which allows tariffs on national security grounds, and Section 301, which targets unfair trade practices. Under Section 232, future tariffs could target large-scale batteries, industrial chemicals, plastic piping, cast iron, and power grid and telecom equipment. Under Section 301, which is the same authority Trump used against China in his first term, trade lawyers expect "exceedingly broad" investigations that could eventually cover most U.S. trading partners.

The EU, Japan, and South Korea are in a complicated position. All three struck deals that lowered U.S. tariffs on their car exports from 25% to 15%, and trade experts say those countries will be reluctant to renegotiate since giving up those exemptions could trigger even harsher penalties.

Where is my refund?

A separate issue is what happens to money already paid. Companies that paid the struck-down tariffs may be entitled to refunds, but the mechanics are murky. Greer said lower courts will determine how refunds work. Economists warn that even if importers eventually get their money back, those savings are unlikely to reach consumers. Prices have already adjusted. As Oxford Economics noted, most of the tariff cost has already fed through to core consumer goods prices.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Oxford Economics