U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Resume in Geneva
U.S. and Iranian officials are meeting in Geneva today for a third round of indirect nuclear talks, mediated by Oman. The U.S. delegation is led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is leading for Tehran. The talks are happening against the backdrop of the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion including: two aircraft carriers, 14 surface warships, fighter jets, and thousands of additional troops are now in the region.
What's at stake
Trump has said he prefers diplomacy but is openly considering a limited military strike if Iran won't agree to stop uranium enrichment. Iran has rejected that demand outright, though there are indications it may offer other concessions. Iran is the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium at near-weapons-grade levels.
Ahead of today's talks, the Treasury Department announced new sanctions targeting Iran's shadow fleet, the network of tankers used to sell sanctioned Iranian oil, as well as networks supplying ballistic missiles and drones. The sanctions target over 30 individuals, entities, and vessels. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described it as part of a "maximum pressure" campaign.
Why markets are watching
If talks collapse, the risk of military action is real. A conflict in the Middle East would have significant implications for oil prices, which are already sensitive, global shipping routes, and risk appetite across financial markets is. WTI is currently holding near $65-66/barrel despite a massive 11.4 million barrel increase in U.S. crude stockpiles this week. . Today's session is the one to watch.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, U.S. Treasury